Why do we forecast currencies?
The question to this question lies in the conversation our promoter had with one of his friends. Why do you like currencies? This friend encouraged us to look inside ourselves to see why we do what we do in their work field. What motivates us? It is the motivating factor behind any product or service offering, in fact behind any endeavour, that shapes its colour and character and ends up as a good or bad feeling with the people who use it.
That got us thinking, why does FINALYZER forecast currencies?
Celebrating Being Human and the spirit of it
Before Tesla made an electric car that was apt and could drive @ 80 it was considered impossible to do so even with adequate resources. Once Mr. Musk smashed the barrier, many others are ready follow. The Tenzing Norgay – Edmund Hillary team scaled the Everest for the first time in 1953, inspiring several others to follow in their footsteps. There are many such stories in every field of human endeavor where people have attempted to do the impossible. And, whether they succeed or not, they end inspiring many. Everyone who attempts to do the impossible is essentially celebrating the spirit.
Why do we forecast currencies? Primarily to rise to the challenge, to prove that it can be done and most importantly because we want to have FUN. If you are not having Fun at work, there is no point working. Moreover we are unwilling to accept that currencies cannot be forecasted. We want to do stretch the boundaries of the possible.
Attempting the Impossible
Back in early 90s, people said, “You cannot use Technicals to forecast the Rupee since it’s not a freely traded market”. People did. We did. Successfully. Today many of us are using the same techniques to forecast thinly traded, controlled exotics with relatively high levels of success.
Then people said, “You cannot forecast currencies. At least not for the long term”. Many of us consciously worked to lengthen the horizon of our forecasts, from one week to one month to three months to the twelve months that we routinely forecast now. We at Finalyzer would like to target the 18-month and 24-month time frames next.
Our name, FINALYZER, means Financial Analyzer, wherein we analyse the market, consider the risk factor and try to Risk-Alyze the exposure of our customers to achieve a goal that inspires everyone to take a decisions and Finalyze in record time as we believe Time is more than Money. In this process we think we have undertaken mind-blowing journeys in currency forecasting, evolved several new forecasting techniques and made our forecasts better & accurate for our Clients.
The Third Dimension
Most forecasters answer only the very basic question, “Where is the market going to go? Up, down or sideways?”” This is the first dimension of forecasting. Then, of course, they quickly graduate to predicting the price targets, to answer the second question, “To what level?” This is the second dimension.
Unfortunately, this is where most people tend to stop. Very few people even make an attempt to answer the question “By when? How long will it take?” This is the third dimension of forecasting, where we have been working, with increasing degrees of success.
After this, we will train our sights on the fourth dimension, the fourth question, which people do not even currently contemplate. That is, “What is the path the market will take to reach where you are saying it will reach in your stated time frame?”
Maybe we’ll be able to do it, maybe we won’t. But we’ll surely try. And have fun doing it. After all we have created an organisation wherein the entire team has fun. The team wants to come to office not for work but for their passion which eventually makes them very very happy. If you are not having fun, not celebrating at work and not happy the very purpose of us being human and celebrating the spirit is defeated. “It is not about life exists after death. It is whether you are Alive before Death – Osho”
The fun is also in the improvement
The spirit of celebrating being human helps us to not only cross new horizons but also to continuously improve upon the quality of our forecasts. Our Promoter started tracking the performance of our Dollar-Rupee forecasts in August 2008. Incidentally, we realise that very few forecasting services in India track their records. We keep wondering, how can improve if you do not track your performance?
For instance, back in July 2009, our promoter Paarth Bhatia started forecasting currencies in his individual capacity .His reliability (a combination of directional accuracy on the one hand and deviation from actual on the other) stood at barely 18.9%. This was simply unacceptable. Obviously he had to improve. And he did. The good news is that our current reliability now stands at a much more satisfying and profitable 52.4%.
Our effort is to increase this reliability to 60%. That is when we will create magic. Maybe it is an impossible horizon to chase. But again, it’s fun to try the impossible. What are you doing if you are not having fun. If you are not having fun at your work, scaling to new heights and doing the impossible will only be a distant dream.
Our fun helps our Clients
While our core motivation in forecasting currencies is to have fun, we also want our forecasts to serve our Clients well. The more reliable our forecasts become, the longer the time frame we cover, the lesser the deviation from the actual, the more closely we are able to map the path to the future, the more useful our forecasts are to our Clients.
The biggest contribution our forecasts make is that they help reduce the FEAR of foreign exchange in the minds of our Clients and encourages them to undertake systematic forex risk management with greater confidence. To be able to impart a sense of confidence in our Clients is an even bigger motivation than only having fun.
And it is this Spirit of Service, the feeling of exhilaration, at having helped our clients achieve their goals, and to form new benchmarks in the arena of currency forecasting, that is our driving force.
When you use our forecasts, you will experience the celebration of the being human and its spirit in the uniqueness, boldness and reliability of our forecasts.